Where there are fossil fuels that more than one country can claim rights to the geopolitics of the region becomes extremely complex. Add in a terrorist element and the stakes become even higher. The Caspian Basin has a number of countries which are taking advantage of the rich oil and natural gas reserves, including Russia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan. In addition players such as Georgia, Armenia and Turkey get into the mix as countries where the fuel can efficiently transit to make it out to the open ocean for distribution around the world. Russia is clearly the big power player on the block and has been very keen on exercising its influence in the region to affect “pipeline politics”. That said though Russia has been dealing with its own political troubles in the region with the terror and separatist movements in the Caucasus Mountain regions of Chechnya, North Ossetia, Ingushetia, Karbardino-Balkaria and Dagastan. How Russia handles both its oil wealth, its internal security and its relations with it's neighbors is key to not only their own security policies but also those of the US and Europe.
Terrorism has been a feature in the northern Caucasus region for some time now and has resulted in harsh military crackdowns by the Russians in the Chechnya region on several occasions. This issue is far from being resolved. “Russia faces what one of President Putin’s senior political advisers calls an ‘‘underground fire’’ in the North Caucasus—made worse by the unending war in Chechnya—and its vulnerability to major terrorist incidents in that region and across Russia remains high” (Council on Foreign Relations Independent Task Force 2006, 31). The region has a large Muslim population leading many to believe that the terrorism is a result of growing Islamic extremism. However surveys of the young men (often the target of extremist recruiting) show that there is very little to support that notion. In an extensive study by Gerber and Mendleson (2009) it was clear that most men between the ages of 16 and 49 were not moved by the extreme Islamist notions. They are, however, very concerned about the extreme poverty, lack of jobs and corruption within their local governments. Should Islamic militant organizations act first on addressing the social needs of these regions, much like the Islamic Brotherhood does in Egypt (Marsot 2007), the sympathies for such movements can shift. This area is key for Russian energy transit to market and so terrorist activity in the area must be addressed as well as the social and economic depravity of the area. Russia has the opportunity here to take a positive approach to strong influence and long term stability it she addresses the root causes of the trouble here instead of the hard handed military approach while there is still time and the central government is still looked upon in a favorable light.
Russia hasn’t only been using a heavy hand within its own territory but also as a means to affect energy policies of its neighbors. “Russia is now using energy transfers “as a weapon” in its efforts to impose new pricing structures in Ukraine and Belarus, with deleterious impact upon contracted supply to the EU market…” (R. Craig Nation 2007, 9). These policies have understandably made the West nervous and as such as increased their determination to bypass Russia for delivery of the oil from the Caspian region. Two pipelines have been built using Georgia as a transit zone to the Black Sea. Russia has long been very nervous about Georgia’s western leanings and in 2008 "Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, accused Washington of ‘infiltrating the post-Soviet space ever more actively: Ukraine and Georgia are graphic examples’…” (German 2009). Russia launched an invasion of Georgia in August of 2008 in an effort to undermine investor confidence in the stability of the region. If nothing else it did succeed to slow down investment and building in the region by showing how easily the Russian Army was able to get to the crucial pipelines (German 2009).
Russia and the West are involved in a new miniature “cold war” over energy security in the Caucasus and Caspian regions. Both are vying to influence post Soviet nations and have a strong say over their policies. The Russian government also has personal reasons for this as well. “To become a high official of the Kremlin is to become a part owner of some of the world’s largest corporations; to lose one’s official post means a potentially gigantic loss of personal wealth, or worse” (Council on Foreign Relations Independent Task Force 2006, 19). With state ownership of the energy companies, Russia has the very combustible combination of military power along with personal wealth considerations which make it a very unpredictable and volatile force in the region. Europe's heavy need for the energy produced in this region any adverse actions by Russia are seen as critical security issues for the US and NATO.
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Thanks for another fascinating post, Kristina. Once again, it comes down to what people/governments will do to get what they need/others want. It kind of stinks that we are the ones reading this, as some of the questions raised are REALLY good questions that would not be received well if we were the ones to ask (on a global scale, I mean.)
ReplyDeleteHowever, I do think it does make a valid argument for continuing our research into more renewable energy sources and in partnering with other nations to expand the scope. If you help someone who doesn't want your help, you are overbearing. If you help someone who recognizes that they have a problem and who asks for it, then you are admirable/a hero. So much in life comes down to semantics...
Unfortunately, Russia doesn't have a great track record when it comes to asking for help. I'd still say they are better than China, but that is a separate story (and perhaps a SEPARATIST story, for some?) Cultures can change, but those cultural shifts take time. Sometimes we have it, and sometimes we don't. We just don't always know which is the case.
Knowledge can be power or, as in this case, power can be power. We have a lot of things here which many of us take for granted. Look to Russia from advent of the 20th century: one of those things is relative stability. It may sound harsh for me to say that I would never ally with the Russians, but it is because during both World Wars their entire government was overthrown. Turmoil is especially good at breeding more turmoil in Russia. Perhaps it is worth looking at in greater detail...
Once the weather stopped being the protection that it once was, Russia doesn't seem to have recovered. We have to find ways to adapt to changing circumstances and not be ripped apart in the process. Russia is not a superpower, but it sure sounds like they still know how to bully. Let's not do that: this is why we need to look at why we need to consider ourselves as a superpower and what it really means.