Global finance and how to handle instability.

“… capitalism requires the possibility of failure”  (The Economist Special Report, 2009, The uneven contest).  Our country was built on the idea that if you took a chance and ran for your dream it is possible you could make it.  There was never a promise that you were guaranteed it though.  The financial markets are a means for some to achieve their dream.  However, as our lives have become intertwined with institutions and states our dreams have become intertwined.  “When the financial system fails, everyone suffers”  (The Economist Special Report, 2009, Greed – and fear).  When the system fails there is always an outcry for regulation and to clamp down on those whose percieved incompetence caused the average person harm.  While this has the over tones of a sense of justice, severe regulation results in stagnation and continued economic hardship.  Take a look at the IMF regulations put on South Korea during the 1997 crisis, or Japan’s own internal regulations that led them to the “lost decade” where growth was non-existent. There is a middle ground however.

There are two places where governments and institutions can attack the problem of financial crisises.  There is crisis mitigation where steps are taken to prevent a crisis, and crisis management where steps to taken to handle a crisis in progress.  For mitigation we must realize that the financial markets are global and therefore require a global solution.  This means that there needs to be agreement at the level of the World Bank or IMF for rules that are backed by international law.  These rules need to allow for innovation and growth so they can’t really be focused on specific instruments and possibly institutions.  An example of a rule that would likely help would be that the financial products be completely transparent.  As Martin Wolf pointed out in his interveiw on Fixing Global Finance (2009), the CDO’s at the heart of the current crisis were opaque.  While buyers knew that they were made up of mortgages across a wide variety of markets, there was little information about the distribution of mortgages across the traunches or how those mortgages were created.  There was no information showing that many mortgages were made with no supporting documentation insuring income or ability to pay.  Had this information been available buyers would have been better informed as to the risk they were taking. “The presumption should be for transparency” (The Economist Special Report, 2009, Fixing finance).

The second mitigation course I think should be done is that, in the interest of transparency, is that all assumptions about a product should be included in the documentation and a risk analysis of what would happen if these assumptions were to fail.  This is not a novel concept.  Businesses do this all the time when making decisions on what products to market and develop.  It is a key part of the decision making process to understand completely where your risks are and how you will respond to them if they come true.  Few people thought the housing market would fail and so they just ignored that it was an assumption and treated it as if it were law.   That is when Mr. Soros term of “refexivity” comes in to play.  “Once people come to believe that house prices never fall, they will buy too much property—and house prices will fall” (The Economist Special Report, 2009, When markets turn).  It is key that it is legally required for companies to provide full disclosure of these assumptions and the make up of their product thus that they could be held responsible if they did not provide potential buyers with all critical material to make responsible decisions.  When evaluating specific products the regulating body should be looking for those that are showing signs of increasing transaction volumes, with a very strong lense on the products that are touting “high returns with low risk”.  That is always a big red flag.

In the area of crisis management we must get out of the knee-jerk reactions and panic decisions.  This may lead to some quick relief, but it is usually at the cost of long term financial pain.  “… regulators need to re-establish the idea that intervention is based on rules” (The Economist Special Report, 2009, The uneven contest).  One thing countries can do is establish a “lender of last resort” for businesses within their borders.  I am not talking about the bailouts that we have seen for the last two years.  When the markets fail credit seizes up.  Businesses in good health suddenly do not have access to the short term credit they need to innovate and grow.  As a result they contract and lay off workers.  This creates the cycle where less money goes into the system thus creating more uncertainty, even less credit, and more tightening.  There needs to be a place where healthy businesses that were financially stable at the outset of the crisis, to be able to get credit when the private sector lenders are going through their period of shock.  There needs to be a known planned process on how to feed cash into this lending institution in a predictable way so as not to increase inflation.  This would help the private sector businesses whether the storm and keep jobs in place and dampen the viscious cycle of reducing demand.

While these are just some high level ideas on how we can deal with crisis moving forward the authors of our reading make two other important notes.  “Time after time the market seems to have found ways to work around regulation” (The Economist Special Report, 2009, The uneven contest).  This is the reason for more general rules that apply across the board.  The more specific they are made the easier they will be to work around.  Also, “Given the financial system’s fallibility, regulation is bound to be fallible too” (The Economist Special Report, 2009, The uneven contest).  No one is perfect.  And when you are dealing with products that are completely new there is the very real possibility that regulators will miss something.  This is the reason that there will never be perfect mitigation and the need for planned management is required.  Global finance is here to stay and it can be a hugely positive force in global development and personal wealth.  But it can go astray and the mob hysteria around the so called “low risk, high return” products.

References and further reading:

Krugman, P. (2010, May 6). A Money To Far. Retrieved October 28, 2010, from New York Times Opinion: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/07/opinion/07krugman.html

Neuman, S. (2010, October 20). Could Drastic Euro-Style Spending Cuts Happen Here? Retrieved October 30, 2010, from NPR Business and Economy: http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=130690626

Roubini, N. (2008). The Coming Financial Pandemic. Foreign Policy , 165, 44-48.

Stiglitz, J. E. (2009, November/December). Death Cometh for the Green Back. The National Interest .

The Economist Special Report. (2009, January 22). Fixing Finance. Retrieved October 28, 2010, from The Economist: http://www.economist.com/node/12957769

The Economist Special Report. (2009, January 22). Greed - and fear: The golden age of finaince collapsed under its own contradictions. Retrieved October 28, 2010, from The Economist: http://www.economist.com/node/12957709

The Economist Special Report. (2009, January 22). The uneven contest: Financial regulation is essential. That does not make it easy. Retrieved October 29, 2010, from The Economist: http://www.economist.com/node/12957717

The Economist Special Report. (2009, January 22). When markets turn. Retrieved October 28, 2010, from The Economist: http://www.economist.com/node/12957745

Vandewalle, D. (2006). A History of Modern Libya. Cambridge UK: Cambridge University Press.

Wolf, M. (2009, March 5). Fixing Global Finance. (N. Chandra, Interviewer) YaleGlobal.

International Finance and Business in the "Wild West" of Globalization

The subject of this week’s post could just as easily be “To Regulate or Not to Regulate?  And if we wanted to, could we?”  The decade leading up to the 2008 financial meltdown, or The Great Recession as the press is now tagging it, saw unprecedented growth in the internationalization of business and finance.  International corporations not only extended their supply chains throughout the world but also moved entire business units such as payroll and customer support to other countries where labor was less expensive.  Even more dramatic was the incredible rise in purely financial trading that occurred across international borders. “Financial integration and generally open governments have encouraged growth in cross border investment during that time as well, from $200 billion in 1990 to nearly $1.5 trillion in 2008”  (ATKearney, 2010, p.5).  With relatively little in the way of international regulation there is a bit of the Wild West feel to the international markets in the past decade.  Not only have private business and financial institutions been involved in the global financial frenzy but governement investments, soveriegn wealth funds, have increased to an estimated $3 tillion in assets through investment in foreign companies and financial products  (Halliday, 2008). And the 2008 meltdown showed the world just how much the average person was impacted by the actions and risks companies and financial institutions would engage in.  How the democratic governments react to the public pressures  vs the pressure put on them by the business elites will really determine the future of the global political order.

What makes the 2008 melt down interesting is that the hardest hit countries were the richest and most democratic nations in the world.  Europe and the United States have been experiencing quite a bit of public backlash to the crisis and the subsequent fallout to the general public.  Unemployment is running at about 10% in the US, which after having spent a number of years at all time unemployment lows of approximately 5% feels terrible to the general public.  Also a large number of people are facing the loss of their homes due to the combination of variable rate interest  loans to high risk borrowers and the high unemployment.  Public perception both in the US and Europe is that their democratically elected government who is supposed to represent them is “in bed” with the financial and corporate elites that they believe to be responsible for their current hardship. Public funds were used to “bail out” the banks and other financial institutions who were on the brink of collapse.  Good arguments can be made either way if these were necessary to stave off the next Great Depression or if they were an over panicked reaction by the goverments. Whether or not they were the right thing to do will make little difference moving forward as the public percieves them as a violation of their trust.  The public does not take kindly to being asked to make sacrafices, see the various protests and strikes in Europe, to help get government balance sheets in order following the bailouts of the elites.  In the US the public is taking its anger out in the midterm elections where it is expected that the balance of power in the House of Representatives and possibly the Senate will shift to the Republicans.

The governements of these nations know they are under great pressure to “just fix it” from the public.  What options are available?  The first option is to appeal to the nationalistic rehtoric and start closing the doors to international interactions.   “… national governments in a troubled economy might take actions to protect local interests that run counter to the strategy of a global corporation”  (ATKearney, 2010, p.8) .  As an example ATKearney points to the amendment to the TARP package which was to prohibit recipients of funds from outsourcing service functions (i.e. payroll or customer service) to other countries  (ATKearney, 2010).   Congress is responding to the public pressure to create jobs and bring them back in country.  There is a valid argument though that by paying extra wages for US workers, these companies will cease to be competitive and have to shut down or contract, thus adding to the unemployment process.  This is a hard sell though when the public is bombarded by the extraordinary salaries made by many of the corporate CEO’s.  ” Multinational chief executives 30 years ago made 35 times the wages of an average employee; today it is more than 350 times. The crisis has focused attention on the obscene inequities of this era - the world's 1,100 richest people have almost twice the assets of the poorest 2.5bn”  (Rothkopf, Change is in the Air for Financial Superclass, 2008).  Many companies, especially financial companies who have limited fixed assets, would likely just move to countries where there is less regulation thus reducing the cost of doing business.

A second option governments have is to strengthen the international institutions ability to regulate international commerce.  This is much easier said than done as there are two major forces acting against any coherent regulation.  First is that getting the majority of nations within these institutions to agree on any real form of regulation is a huge challenge.    Countries that have continued to see growth through the crisis, i.e. China and India, will pull a great deal of leverage in trying to keep the international community from controlling their financial futures. “The top creators of great new personal fortunes are in China, India and Russia. It seems unavoidable that the transatlantic elite that have been the habitués of Davos will be rivaled in influence by the Asian contingent - a group that has as little appetite for the Alpine gabfest as for the values and priorities of the western financial super-class” (Rothkopf, Change is in the Air for Financial Superclass, 2008). In addition the growing power of sovereign wealth funds means that not only would private business be regulated but states as well.  With the fundamental rule of sovereignty reining supreme within the international institutions they are unlikely to gain any real strength in enforcement of regulations. 

Europe, hard hit with the challenges of national balance sheets due to the shared currency, is evaluating stronger changes to regulation of state economies and business within the Union.  They are much more likely to get agreement on trade and currency regulation within the EU as it is a much stronger institution and has fewer cultural hurdles to overcome.  In the US though, the call for the government to fix the problem is balanced also by a call for less government at the same time.  Likely scenario is that not much will change in the long term.  There may be some legislation that will be passed to appease the public by looking like they are putting the crunch on corporations, but at the first sign of the economy becoming worse or more job losses that practice will be stopped in the interest of getting the economy to grow again.  The combination of the weakness of international institutions and the political and financial power of the elites to ensure that there is little that national governments can do to regulate.  The one hope for holding these corporations accountable is in the public themselves to pressure businesses and only support those businesses who behave with an outlook towards the public good.

Further Reading and References:

ATKearney. (2010). Globalization Enters a New Era: What Course Will It Take. Corporate Finance Review , 14 (5), 5-11.

Cowen, T. (2008, April 27). Freer Trade Could Fill the World's Rice Bowl. Retrieved October 16, 2010, from New York Times World Business: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/27/business/worldbusiness/27view.html?_r=1&scp=1&sq=Freer%20Trade%20Could%20Fill%20the%20World's%20Rice%20Bowl&st=Search

Gilpin, R. (1987). The Political Economy of International Relations. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.

Halliday, F. (2008, March 5). Sovereign Wealth Funds: power vs. principle. Retrieved October 16, 2010, from openDemocracy: http://www.opendemocracy.net/article/globalisation/global_politics/stolen_wealth_funds

Rodrik, D. (2009, March 11). Project Syndicate. Retrieved October 16, 2010, from Blame the Economists, Not the Economics: http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/rodrik29/English

Rothkopf, D. (2008, May 15). Change is in the Air for Financial Superclass. Retrieved October 15, 2010, from Carnegie Endowment for International Peace: http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=20162

Rothkopf, D. (2008, May 14). Superclass and the Inequity of Globalization. Retrieved October 15, 2010, from Carnegie Endowment for International Peace: http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=20161

Rothkopf, D. (2008, May 4). They're Global Citizens. They're Hugely Rich and They Pull the Strings. Retrieved October 15, 2010, from Carnegie Endowment for International Peace: http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=20096

Free Speech on Trial

Today there are two court cases involving freedom of speech in the western democracies that beg the question about if there should be boundaries around free speech.  The first is the trial of Dutch Parliamentary Minister Geert Wilders (BBC News Europe 2010).  He is on trial for inciting hate through speeches and public writings.  The second case is Snyder v. Phelps in the US Supreme Court (US Supreme Court 2010).  In this case Phelps is the pastor of a church which has been protesting at the funerals of fallen US service men and women claiming that their deaths are punishment for the US toleration of homosexuality.  Snyder, the father of one of the servicemen is claiming that the protests caused emotional harm to his family at a time when they were vulnerable and violated his first amendment rights of freedom of peaceful assembly.   Both of these cases can have far reaching impacts no matter which way they are decided.

The Netherlands, as is much of Europe, is going through a transition.  For much of its history the Netherlands has been pretty homogeneous in racial and religious makeup.  However in the past couple of decades instability in the Middle East has resulted in a large migration of Muslim immigrants and refugees throughout Europe.   Many in Europe see this as a threat to their way of life.  This can be seen in the recent acceptance of laws banning the wearing of Burqas in public (Castle 2010).    Wilders has said that the trial “… will not deter him from his mission, which is to stop the "Islamisation" of the Netherlands” (BBC News Europe 2010).  He has called for a ban on immigration of Muslims as well as for the banning of the Koran, which he refers to as a “facist book”.  What makes his case so visible is that he is in a key position within the Dutch government as the key lynchpin in a coalition of minority parties that combined control 76 of the 150 seats in the parliament.  The Netherlands is also a place which has a keen awareness of what happens when a zealot preaching hate starts to gain power.  Anne Frank’s house sits on a canal right in the heart of Amsterdam.  Just a short train ride away you are in Arnhem where some of the bloodiest battles of World War II took place (the location for the movie A Bridge To Far).  Reminders are everywhere of the dark days of the 30’s and 40’s when hatred of minorities ran wild and death was the result for anyone who tried to defend them.  Even for those who tried to just wait out the storm starvation and mass destruction where a way of life.  One can understand the fears of allowing that kind of hate to overtake the country once again.  Currently the trial is on hold as Mr. Wilders has called for the judicial panel be replaced as he feels he cannot get a fair trial following a comment from the head judge (BBC News Europe 2010).

In the US the case of Snyder v. Phelps is of a different nature.  It is about if freedom of speech is allowed everywhere at all times no matter what the impact is to those around.  Phelps and his small congregation of 30 members would travel around the country to funerals of fallen soldiers to launch protests claiming that “The Lord no longer builds the American house; nor does the Lord watch over and protect America. These soldiers are dying for the homosexual and other sins of America.  God is now America's enemy, and God Himself is fighting against America” (Westboro Baptist Church 2010).  This month alone they plan 19 protests at funerals throughout the country (Westboro Baptist Church 2010).  In the case of Snyder V. Phelps there are three questions being considered.  First is if the previous Supreme Court ruling in Hustler Magazine v. Fallwell apply to private citizens (US Supreme Court 1988).  In this case it was ruled that Hustler Magazine did not engage in wrong doing by printing a parody comic showing Mr. Fallwell in a clearly fictional situation no matter how tasteless it was.  The ruling states:   “We conclude that public figures and public officials may not recover for the tort of intentional infliction of emotional distress by reason of publications such as the one here at issue without showing in addition that the publication contains a false statement of fact which was made with "actual malice," i. e., with knowledge that the statement was false or with reckless disregard as to whether or not it was true” and that “Here it is clear that respondent Falwell is a "public figure" for purposes of First Amendment law” (US Supreme Court 1988).  In this case the family of the fallen soldier are clearly not public figures so the court must rule if it also applies to private citizens as well. 

The second question “Does the First Amendment's freedom of speech tenet trump the First Amendment's freedom of religion and peaceful assembly?” (US Supreme Court 2010).  The last question is “Does an individual attending a family member’s funeral constitute a captive audience who is entitled to state protection from unwanted communication?” (US Supreme Court 2010).  I was not able to find if the protesters had been granted permission, or for that matter required any permission, to gather across the street from the locations where the funerals are being held.  It is a tough question about the captive audience because the word “captive” here applies to emotional captivity.  While one may have the physical ability to leave the location where the offensive speech is taking place they may not have the emotional ability to leave in the time of grieving.   

In a time where we are seeing more demagogues pondering for our attention as weariness from war and a sluggish economy drag on, the lack of respect and responsibility with speech is becoming more apparent.  Freedom is a wonderful thing and we are blessed to have a constitution and rule of law to protect that.  At the same time, though, free speech comes with great responsibility.  Each of these people involved in all of these cases deserve the right to have their opinions and to speak about them.  However there are constructive ways to make your point and destructive ways.  With the availability of instant information what people say become sound bites that are spread the world over in an instant and a great deal of context could be lost.  As we see today in our political discourse people run with snippets of information and fail to grasp the full meaning of issues and the long term impacts of their decisions.  In both of these cases the respective courts must grapple with the long term impacts of whichever way they decide.  We as listeners though also have a responsibility to educate ourselves on what these and other demagogues are saying as they try to appeal to the emotional sides of issues.  They are counting that by playing to the emotional side that the people they are talking to won’t question and learn about all sides.  In a society of free speech I feel I have a duty to dig deeper and not take what is said for granted.  I also feel I have a responsibility to use my power of free speech for good and show respect to others in the way I communicate my message.  I hope I do that.  Please feel free to share your opinion on these cases or on our basic freedoms.  I look forward to what you have to say.

Here is a news report on the arguments presented today 10-6.  As soon as the official transcript is posted I will add that.  http://www.cnn.com/2010/CRIME/10/06/washington.free.speech.trial/index.html?hpt=Sbin]

And here is the official transcript in today's arguments of Snyder vs. Phelps
http://www.supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/argument_transcripts/09-751.pdf

BBC News Europe. Dutch anti-Islam MP Geert Wilders goes on Trial. October 4, 2010. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-11464025 (accessed October 6, 2010).

Castle, Stephen. "Belgium Moves to Ban Burqas Worn in Public." New York Times, March 31, 2010: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/01/world/europe/01iht-brussels.html.

US Supreme Court. 09-751 Synder v. Phelps. March 8, 2010. http://www.supremecourt.gov/qp/09-00751qp.pdf (accessed October 2010, 2010).

—. Hustler Magazine, Inc. v. Falwell. February 24, 1988. http://scholar.google.com/scholar_case?case=5069891851949874011&hl=en&as_sdt=2&as_vis=1&oi=scholarr (accessed October 6, 2010).

Westboro Baptist Church. Westboro Baptist Church Picket Schedule. October 1, 2010. http://www.godhatesfags.com/schedule.html (accessed October 6, 2010).

Afghanistan, why we are losing the people.

Today I finished a book that has left me in tears.  In all of my readings of the issues in the world that have touched me none struck me at my heart like this one has.  Anna Badkhen’s journal of her trip to Northern Afghanistan (Waiting for the Taliban: A Journey through Northern Afghanistan originally published in segments in Foreign Policy magazine, now available for Kindle at Amazon.com) takes you right into the hearts and minds of the people who have endured centuries of constant fighting.  Ms. Badkhen is no stranger to war.  She first reported from this area of Afghanistan for the San Francisco Chronicle in 2001.  She has also covered such theaters as Iraq, Palestine and Israel, Chechnya and Somalia.  One would expect her to be hardened against the atrocities and living conditions found in such zones.  However, through this work you see how strongly her heart is touched.  You experience the sublime in how they make it through each day with violence surrounding them, as well as the absurdity of the promises made and broken by those who promised to support them.  Most of all though it brings to light how a militant organization can thrive and win the hearts of those that had once loathed them through the simple act of providing some kind of order in their lives lived in fear.  How she manages to keep her head together through all of this is a testament to her strength and, I would suspect, her strong belief that what she has to say will in the end help those who suffer as a result of these battles.

This book does not attempt to condemn the US for engaging in this war in the first place and must not be construed as a commentary of such.  It simply tries to show you life in Northern Afghanistan and how the people of this region view what has happened in the last decade.  In 2001 the US military swept in and literally removed the Taliban, with the help of the Northern Alliance, out of areas of northern Afghanistan.  Many of the people there rejoiced in this as they believed that their lot in life would get better.  Many promises were made both by the US military, by aid agencies and by the newly elected democratic government of Afghanistan as to the aid they would receive and how their lives would change.  The Taliban mean while has been pushed south into areas such as Kandahar and so did the resources to fight them.  Quite simply the north was forgotten by everyone.  What aid did arrive was in the form of playgrounds or a school building.  Note, there were no books, desks, supplies or even teachers so the buildings remain empty.  In a couple cases an entire village would get an electric generator, but the people in the village both did not have the money or the ability to get fuel to run them.  Very clearly those who did contribute didn’t understand the capabilities of the regions they put stuff in so much of it went to waste.  To make matters worse the government implored refugees who had run over the borders to come home, promising them a new and prosperous life.  To quote Badkhen “I imagine the indigence of these refugees easily.  In Camp Shahraqi Mawjirin, I have met families whom the Afghan government had dumped in a tract of salty desert, where nothing will ever grow, where there are no jobs, no electricity, no doctors” (461-463).   Their children were dying of cold at an astonishing rate.  The local official for the Ministry of Refugees and Repatriation can’t do much for them as he was only given 400 blankets for over 220,000 refugees by the government.  What little he can do comes out of his own pocket. 

Besides the abject poverty once again several militant groups, not just Taliban, have started fighting over the meager resources and brought back up age old feuds.   The Pashtuns, who make up most of the Taliban.  One of the reasons they welcome them back is the fear of ethnic violence from the Hazara.  This feud goes way back in history and both sides have committed amazing atrocities.  But the militias provide protection where the government does not.  As one person she interviewed mentioned, the Taliban brought order which is better than the anarchy that exists today.  They can’t understand how the US has pumped billions of dollars not only into their own supplies and personnel for the war, but into the Afghan government and yet they are still dying from lack of basic security and services.  They don’t understand how the US can support a government that they see as entirely corrupt.  In fact, Transparency International 2009 Corruption Perception Index had Afghanistan as the second most corrupt country in the world only ahead of Somalia (Transparency International 2009).  The people of northern Afghanistan are not asking to be made rich all of a sudden and have cars, and TV’s etc.  They are simply asking for enough rule of law and basic services (running clean water, electricity and health care) so they can have a fighting chance at making a decent life for their children.  They just want to live in peace.  And when they see the world’s most powerful economic force and military force make promises and walk away without fulfilling them, it is no wonder that they start to resent us.

So what is to be done?  Do we give up and pull out?  The ramifications of this are far graver than the abject poverty that embraces these people today.  Given Pakistan’s current problems with its government and similar corruption and poverty issues it is not out of this world to project that those two countries could easily become Somalia on steroids.  The anarchy and poverty of Northern Afghanistan make the region ripe for a number of ethnic and anti government demagogues to take advantage of the people and build up a conglomeration of warlords once again, Al Qaeda being one of them.  If this spills into Pakistan you suddenly have a country with nuclear weapons in that mix.  Yes it would save us money, and in the short term save some of our service men’s lives.  It wouldn’t be long though before that regional instability will foster another major terror attack and we have to consider that in our policy. 

History has shown that insurgencies can be beaten.  In Brian Connable’s study on historical insurgencies (Connable 2010) he offers a bit of hope that we can beat this down and achieve a stable Afghanistan.  It involves one very key ingredient though that is in short supply in the US: patience.  The root causes of what allows an insurgency to grab hold must be addressed.  In this case it is the abject poverty, the corruption of the federal government and the reconciliation between ethnic groups that have been victims of mutually induced atrocities.  This won’t be cheap and requires a long term commitment and likely some American lives.  One must ask though if we are willing to spend that now or wait until we experience an attack far worse than 9/11 to start all over again?

Sources:

Badkhen, Anna. Waiting for the Taliban: A Journey through Northern Afghanistan. Las Vegas, NV: AmazonEncore, 2010.

Connable, Ben. How Insurgencies End. 2010. http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG965/ (accessed 1 2010, October).

Transparency International. 2009 Corruption Perception Index. 2009. http://www.transparency.org/policy_research/surveys_indices/cpi/2009/cpi_2009_table (accessed October 1, 2010).